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Do covariates explain why these groups differ? The choice of reference group can reverse conclusions in the Oaxaca-Blinder decomposition

arXiv.org Machine Learning

Scientists often want to explain why an outcome is different in two groups. For instance, differences in patient mortality rates across two hospitals could be due to differences in the patients themselves (covariates) or differences in medical care (outcomes given covariates). The Oaxaca--Blinder decomposition (OBD) is a standard tool to tease apart these factors. It is well known that the OBD requires choosing one of the groups as a reference, and the numerical answer can vary with the reference. To the best of our knowledge, there has not been a systematic investigation into whether the choice of OBD reference can yield different substantive conclusions and how common this issue is. In the present paper, we give existence proofs in real and simulated data that the OBD references can yield substantively different conclusions and that these differences are not entirely driven by model misspecification or small data. We prove that substantively different conclusions occur in up to half of the parameter space, but find these discrepancies rare in the real-data analyses we study. We explain this empirical rarity by examining how realistic data-generating processes can be biased towards parameters that do not change conclusions under the OBD.





Lost tomb of the mysterious 'cloud people' unearthed after 1,400 years in 'discovery of the decade'

Daily Mail - Science & tech

America's fastest-growing state is selling the perfect lifestyle... and everyone's falling for it I was using my vape 160 times a day, it was costing me a fortune and its toll on my face was truly shocking. Then I discovered a miracle one-day cure... and stopped overnight: MARY KILLEN Lost tomb of the mysterious'cloud people' unearthed after 1,400 years in'discovery of the decade' Devastating truth about Blind Side actor Quinton Aaron: More to this'than everyone is letting on', friends reveal... as co-star Sandra Bullock'monitors' situation Harper Beckham, 14, puts on a stylish display in a fluffy coat and vintage Chanel bag as she heads out in Paris with her family... after Nicola's Peltz's heartbreaking comments about sister-in-law America's earthquake hotspot is more dangerous than feared as scientists make surprising discovery Terrifying animation shows pilot's-eye view of DC mid-air collision between airliner and helicopter that killed 67 Explosive twist in'diva' inmate Bryan Kohberger's life in prison revealed in the FREE The Crime Desk newsletter Marco Rubio'cocoons like a mummy' in bizarre strategy to hide naps from Trump Frozen woman who was'stiff as a rock' is found outside Texas convenience store Inside the Super Bowl hotels home to Seattle Seahawks and New England Patriots... where guests complained of cockroaches, loud noise and'being bitten' Lost tomb of the mysterious'cloud people' unearthed after 1,400 years in'discovery of the decade' It has been hailed as'the most significant archaeological discovery in a decade.' Archaeologists in Mexico have uncovered a 1,400-year-old tomb in the Central Valleys of Oaxaca that had been lost to history. The stone structure, built by the Zapotec culture, known as Be'ena'a, or'The Cloud People', is adorned with sculptures, murals and carved symbols that suggest ritual significance. The Zapotec believed their ancestors descended from the clouds and that, in death, their souls returned to the heavens as spirits.


Why is okra so slimy? Blame the mucilage.

Popular Science

Why is okra so slimy? The plant's signature goo helps it thrive in the heat. Okra gets its slime from a substance called mucilage. Breakthroughs, discoveries, and DIY tips sent six days a week. Okra is one of those vegetables with a polarizing reputation.


The Best Home Cocktail Machines--and Whether You Need One

WIRED

Automatic cocktail machines are silly, but also kind of fun. Here's how to choose between the Bartesian and Barsys devices. The machine on my kitchen table is a holy device, if your definition of "holy" is that it looks like a glowing halo and it's filled with spirits. The machine has taken up a task I consider sacred: making me a cocktail. In advance of holiday party season, I have been testing a pair of devices that promise an indulgent future, a life where machines can make you a passable Old Fashioned.




Simulation-Based Sensitivity Analysis in Optimal Treatment Regimes and Causal Decomposition with Individualized Interventions

arXiv.org Machine Learning

Causal decomposition analysis aims to assess the effect of modifying risk factors on reducing social disparities in outcomes. Recently, this analysis has incorporated individual characteristics when modifying risk factors by utilizing optimal treatment regimes (OTRs). Since the newly defined individualized effects rely on the no omitted confounding assumption, developing sensitivity analyses to account for potential omitted confounding is essential. Moreover, OTRs and individualized effects are primarily based on binary risk factors, and no formal approach currently exists to benchmark the strength of omitted confounding using observed covariates for binary risk factors. To address this gap, we extend a simulation-based sensitivity analysis that simulates unmeasured confounders, addressing two sources of bias emerging from deriving OTRs and estimating individualized effects. Additionally, we propose a formal bounding strategy that benchmarks the strength of omitted confounding for binary risk factors. Using the High School Longitudinal Study 2009 (HSLS:09), we demonstrate this sensitivity analysis and benchmarking method.